7 Indian companies in future giants list

Morgan Stanley picked 7 Indian companies among the Asia Pacific’s best 20 companies by their future growth potential. It is clear signal for Long term investors (3-5 years) to make strategic investments in these companies. You should accumulate these stocks on every fall. Safe 7 Indian companies according to growth potential:

1. Reliance Industries: There is so much value left unlocked in this giant. It is a safe investment in terms of growth potential and value.

2. Reliance Capital: This Company made good investments in high growth sectors whose value will be unlocked in 2-3 years.

3. Pantaloon Retail: I have some doubts over this stock due to increase in competition and high valuations.

4. Larsen and Toubro: My favourite company which will give at least 200% returns within 3 years just due to value unlocking. If you add growth potential, sure jackpot. I will accumulate this stock as long as it stays below 3,500.

Short term target: 2,900-3,200 (Face value-2)

3-year target: 4,500-5,000 (Face value-1).

5. Bharti Airtel: It is making big investments over bandwidth which will play crucial role in future. Reliance Communications is also a good bet.

6. IDFC: Another safe stock for investors.

7. Sobha Developers: I have some doubts over this stock.

Can Anil Ambani beat Mukhesh Ambani?:

If you search for Reliance in Google, first result is Reliance Communications but not Reliance Industries. Can he repeat this performance in real life?

Please share your opinion on these 7 companies.

Stock recommendations for 2008-09

After a long time, I am giving stock picks for my blog readers. All these stocks will give good returns if you give them 1 year time. Forget short term fluctuations in these stocks and invest for long term. Accumulate more of these stocks on every dip.

RBI credit policy once again disappointed Indian stock market investors. Why are you expecting rate cut in the election year? Which government will want to see rise in inflation at this crucial time? Upcoming budget will also disappoint investors. Better prepare for that.

Indian stock markets will see more volatility from February 1st onwards due to short selling by big institutions. 500-1000 point intra-day swings will become common due to SEBI’s new policies. What happens if US Federal will not announce rate cut? Markets will crash. I am waiting for this crucial decision before making fresh investments.

Best Stock picks for long term investors:

1. Reliance Communications:

• Due to its GSM foray, number of subscribers will rise.
• According to rumours, apple may give iphone contract to R-Com. So, it will attract high end customers and ARPUs will rise.
• Due to aggressive management (proven capabilities), it may go any extent to attract GSM subscribers from other networks.
• Its business is less dependent on American financial system. Weakening dollar will boost its other income.
• Indian telecom story will continue for some more time.

2. Reliance Petroleum:

• It is almost like a bank fixed deposit.
• It will unlock its true value 2-3 months before the commencement of refinery.
• You need to forget short term fluctuations.

3. Glenmark Pharma, Educomp solutions and Divis Labs: • All of them have just announced wonderful results.
• All are maintaining good performance for the last 2 years.
• High P/Es are concern. Enter into them on any correction.

4. Wockhardt: • Upcoming IPO will boost this stock price.
• Good stock for short-medium term investors.

5. L&T:
• Only for high risk investors due to its high valuations.
• Demerger of L&T in 2010 will surely benefit long term investors.
• L&T may be risky stock for short-medium term investors.

6. Reliance Industries:
• Accumulate more of this stock (below 2500) and wait for 1 year.
• Reliance Retail and Reliance Life Sciences may list in the markets in the coming days.

7. Welspun Gujarat:

It continues to remain my favourite stock irrespective of market situation. Fundamentally sound stock like this will never give negative returns.

8. Among metal companies, I prefer Jindal Steel while ABG Shipyard is a good one in the shipping sector.

9. IDFC is my stock pick among financial stocks. IFCI is a good bet with risk. If Banking stocks get corrected more, enter into ICICI bank and Axis bank.

10. BHEL and ACC may give decent returns for long term investors.

My views on Stock Markets:

1. SEBI allowed FIIs for short selling in Indian Stock markets from February 1st onwards. So better prepare for more volatile markets.

2. Stock investments may not give you stunning returns but if you invest in accumulating manner for long term, you will get decent returns.

3. Subprime crisis will rise in America will rise in the second half of 2008 due to arrival of floating interest rates. If there is no significant rise in household income, American market will go into recession. If that happens, stock markets will crash (BSE-14,000&NSE-4,000).

4. It is better for short term investors to stay away from markets. After 4 years of Bull Run experience, Indian investors are finding it difficult to change their mindset for bear market situation. They are still expecting miracles due to lack of awareness about looming crisis in the United States.

5. Retail investors should stay away from derivatives and penny stocks. Invest in fundamentally good stocks at reasonable valuations.

6. According to my opinion, upcoming budget may not give boost for stock markets. UPA government may present “Election budget”. In my view, stock markets will crash after the budget. I can’t rule out pre-budget rally.

7. Investors in Tata Steel (corus), Hindalco and Tata Motors (Nano) will need to wait 2-3 years to get real benefits.

8. Tata Chemicals, Matrix Labs, Infosys and Indian hotels are my wild bets for long term investors.

9. Zylog systems is a good stock among the new businesses. I have doubts over Everonn valuations.

10. Gateway Distriparks may bounce back at any time. It has good prospects in the logistics.

Accumulate the above mentioned stocks at reasonable prices and wait for 1 year to get decent returns.

IT stocks will hog limelight

It is a golden day for Export Companies but dooms day for many companies. FII selling pressure will gradually impact market in the short term. Will mutual funds and domestic buyers save the market? Markets are at crucial stage and I will closely watch the FII inflow and out flow. Rupee appreciation will be halted against dollar. Major boost for export companies like IT, Textile etc.

Global markets: US Markets ended on positive note after the intra-day volatility. But FIIs will spoil Indian Markets by moving funds from Indian markets to US markets due to dollar appreciation. Lack of liquidity is a concern. Falling crude oil price is the positive cue from global markets.

Market movements: If investors immediately understand the impact of ECB tightening, it will be a sharp fall. If investors temporarily buoyed by IT stocks rise, markets may sustain for some more time.


Sector of the day: IT Sector. 5-10% gains may be possible for these battered stocks.

Stock of the Day: Infosys.

Significant News:

1. No change in fed interest rates. Inflation is a real concern.
2. Fresh restrictions on External Commercial borrowings (ECB). Maximum limit is $ 20 million for rupee.
3. More sops for exporters by this month end. Accumulate these laggards.

Positive Stock news:

1. City Union Bank announced stock split in 1:10 ratio.
2. TTML, Bharti Airtel and R-Com are in race for 51% stake in Kenya Telkom.
3. Telecom companies will get tax benefits due to tower sharing.
4. Take Solutions IPO oversubscribed 59.4% times but retail portion got 23% over subscription.
5. Great Offshore will buy a Scandinavian company for $ 500 million.
6. ICICI Bank cuts deposit rates by 25-50 bps.
7. Punj Lloyd will place a QIP for $ 400 million.
8. India is now the 5th largest crude steel producer.

Negative Stock News:

1. Left Parties blocked Indo-US Nuclear deal.
2. Due to tightening of ECB norms, Companies will have to pay extra money for loans.
3. Falling crude is a positive sign while dollar appreciation is a negative signal for oil marketing companies.

Stock Recommendations for Day Traders:

1. City Union Bank:
CMP: 237.
Target: 242.

2. Infosys:
CMP: 1878.
Target: 1930.

3. Satyam:
CMP: 463.
Target: 478.

4. TCS:
CMP: 1109.
Target: 1140.

5. IFCI: If it breaks 68 resistance.

Please share your views and stock recommendations.

Black Monday for Indian Stocks

Indian stocks will suffer heavy selling due to weak global markets especially US and Japan. Volatility and range bound sessions will continue in this week. Investors should closely watch the movements of sound stocks like SBI, R-Com, DLF, REL and GMR-Infra Etc to accumulate at attractive price. IFCI, ITC and Hindustan Lever are some stocks that are looking strong with some risk in these volatile markets.

Conservative investors should stay away from Indian share markets for some more time. Traders may have money making chances in these range bound sessions. Indian markets will follow global markets especially US, Japan and China.

Indian Stock Market Movements:

Indian stocks will lose heavily due to weak sentiment in global markets. They will range bound tomorrow if US markets will end on positive note on Monday evening. Risk taking investors may buy in the late session for quick returns on Tuesday. Markets will continue its volatile run. Don’t take long term calls in major stocks and stay away from futures and options.

1. BSE:
CMP: 15138.
Target: 14885.

2. NSE:
CMP: 4401.
Target: 4294.

Courtesy: Bloomberg.

Significant Views:

1. India will be among the top 3 global powers by 2050 – World Economy study.
2. India is the fifth most preferred business destination – World Economy study.

Significant event: Us federal bank meeting on Tuesday.

Positive Stock News:

1. Anant Raj Industries is going for stock split.
2. IFCI board approved 26% stake sale.
3. Reliance has big plans on semiconductor space. It will also invest $ 14 bn in the oil business.
4. Sun TV will launch Sports and Documentary channels. Accumulate this media heavy weight in the 430-450 range for long term benefits.
5. Reliance Communications will launch money transfer scheme through its mobile retail outlets.
Negative Stock News:

1. Oracle will not delist I-Flex Solutions until its price falls below Rs 2,100. CMP: 2,169.
2. Real estate builders with more than 5 crore turnover are under IT scanner.
3. Puravankara IPO revised price band due to poor subscription from 500-525 to 400-450.
4. Reliance Fresh will sell Diageo wine brands through Reliance Fresh. It is taking all the wrong steps in these days. Can any woman go to retail store that is selling wine?

Best Stock picks for Day Traders:

1. Buy IFCI: Heavy interest for IFCI stake.
CMP: 60.7
Target: 63.9

2. Sell SBI.
CMP: 1635.
Target: 1595.

3. Sell Reliance.

4. Sell GMR Infra.
CMP: 832.
Target: 760.

5. Sell DLF.

6. Sell Reliance Communications.
CMP: 547.
Target: 534.

7. Sell L&T and BHEL.

8. Sell I-Flex Solutions – Oracle will not delist I-Flex.

9. Buy Hindustan Lever and ITC in the late session.

Stock in the F&O ban period: Nagarjuna Fertilisers.

My views:

1. Sorry for not posting regularly in the last week. I will post regularly in the coming days.

2. An NRI reader from United States sent me his Portfolio for analysis. He has selected very good stocks like L&T, RPL, RNRL, Tata Investment Corporation, Praj Industries, and First Source etc with long term view. This indicates the growing knowledge about stocks among the retail investors and also among busy persons who have little spare time for research. Long term investors with good portfolios always become millionaires irrespective of short term fluctuations in the markets. Just imagine the benefits of L&T investors after the demerger of its businesses in 2009-10.

3. My sectors for long term investors – Power, Logistics, Shipping, Finance and Banking, Capital Goods and Infrastructure. One should allot 60-70% of their portfolio to these sunrise sectors.

4. I recommend 5-10% allotment to wild cards (future stars) like Wire and Wireless, Dish TV, Fortis Healthcare, Meghamani Organics, Celestial Labs, Ispat etc. They will give tremendous returns in the long term.

5. Invest 5-10% of your money in Government finance companies like TFCI, IFCI, IDBI, IDFC and PTC and PFC. Value unlocking and growing sentiment in these companies will help investors.

6. I recommend 5% allotment to cyclical stocks like Auto and Sugar for long term investors.

7. This is the worst results season in the last 2 years. IT and export stocks are the real culprits. Media, Construction and power sectors are saviours.

8. I don’t comment much on IFCI stake sale and its effects due to my large holding. This is my principle.

Stocks for long term investors:

MRPL and some bank stocks are my dark horses. Rolta and Northgate Technologies are my favourite IT stocks while Dr Reddys is a safe bet for 2011. PFC and IDFC are safe finance stocks along with Reliance Capital. Indo Tech transformer may follow Voltamp in the coming days. Closely watch Dhanalaxmi bank and accumulate on declines. Accumulate Maruti on declines. Reliance Communication is the safest blue chip for medium term investors.

Note: 25% of my holdings in IFCI at an average price of Rs 51. I also have holdings in L&T, RPL, ISPAT, Wire and Wireless, Dish TV, Fortis, Reliance Communications, PFC, RNRL and Praj Industries. 90% of my investments are for long term and 10% is for short term and day trading. I believe in the long term potential of India’s economic growth.

Please share your views on my stock picks and views.

Heavy selling in the initial session

Indian stocks will see heavy selling in the initial session due to fall down in global markets. If late buying is not seen in the late session, today will become black Wednesday. Capital goods will see heavy selling due to vertical rise in the recent days. This correction is good for markets and real investors who are waiting in the sidelines for fresh investments. New inexperienced investors should stay away from markets until RBI announced credit policy. Weakness in global markets, rising rupee, drop in earnings, derivative expiry, crude price will make the stock markets a dangerous territory in the coming days. I am always against CNBC analysts who change their words according to market moments. Long term investors need not worry about these short term fluctuations. Invest in good stocks with strong growth prospects.

Market sentiment: Bears will finally dominate. Indian markets will follow their global peers. Late buying may be seen in some stocks.

Global cues: All markets suffered heavy losses. Indian ADRs are in red with Sterlite lost 5%.

Stocks of the day:

Allied Digital - Will list around Rs 250 and may touch Rs 320. Bear market may spoil sentiment.

1. PNB and Reliance Capital– Results. With risk.
2. Reliance Energy – Lanco loss, Reliance gain.
3. JSW Steel – Wonderful results. With risk.

Rumours of the day:

1. NDTV may sell 26% stake to NBC.

Positive News:

1. BILT – Stock split from Rs 10 to Rs 2. Buyback of 40% equity after split at Rs 25.
2. RIL will setup 4,000 MW power plants for 10,000 crore.
3. Aditya Birla will raise stake in Hindalco to 40% from 31.4%.

Negative News:

1. Lanco bid for Sasan project is invalid. Investors are thinking that the project will be awarded to Reliance Energy. Government is yet to take the decision.
2. Cement companies under MRTPC lens.
3. Textile exports will fall short by 36% due to rupee appreciation in Q1.
4. Hero Honda posted unimpressive results. Future is bleak for this company. Management lacks the vision.
5. Novartis and Dr Reddys are in legal battle over Lotrel patent.

Results:

1. Hindustan Zinc announced 36% rise in net profit.
2. Britannia net profit increased by 19%.
3. Kotak Mahindra bank net profit rose by 99%.
4. Idea announced 540% rise in net profits.

Stock advice:

1. Accumulate Reliance Communications on declines. It will rebound at anytime.
2. Buy Hindustan Lever for short term gains. 15-20% returns within one week.
3. Accumulate Praj Industries in 150-180 range for long term investment. Praj is the back bone for Bio-Fuel industry equipment and Technologies.
4. Investors will book profits in BHEL, L&T, GMR Infra and DLF at any time. Keep strict trailing stop losses.
5. Long term investors should start accumulating fundamentally good stocks like Bharat Forge.
6. Companies sitting on land banks may surprise with their results in the coming quarters due to selling of land banks. Ex. VST Tillers, DCM Shriram, Atlas Cycles, Zandu Pharma, RPG Cables. RPG cables is the best stock for any patient investor. It will give 300% returns in 2 years. Low valuations, high growth, turnaround story, land bank make this a safe stock.
7. IFCI may not sell stake in the coming days. It is trying to create good business model to unlock its real value. It is a bad news for short term investors and very good news for real long term investors. It will give 200% returns within 12-15 months.
8. Raymond and Cipla are contrarian buys with limited downside but results are disappointing.

Stocks for day traders:

1. Sell ACC.
2. Sell BHEL.
3. Sell L&T.
4. Sell Lanco.
5. Sell Hero Honda.
6. Buy these stocks if sharp fall is seen – Reliance Communications, Reliance Energy and PNB.

Please share your views on Indian stocks.

Profit booking in the late session

Indian share markets rise in the early session due to strong cues from global markets. Profit booking will be seen in the late session due to rise in inflation and unsustainable valuations. FIIs are buying in the Indian stocks while Retail investors and domestic institutions are selling for the last 2 days. Just imagine the plight of Indian markets if FIIs withdraw money from Indian markets as in May, 2006. I will not recommend fresh investments in stocks like Reliance, SBI, ICICI, GMR Infra, L&T etc. Markets may rise in the short term but single negative news is enough to spoil the market sentiment.

Global cues: US markets rose on strong earnings. Crude price is stable.

Stock of the day: Satyam Computers.

Rumour of the week:

1. Reliance will buy stake in Cipla. Talks are going on. Watch out for news.

Significant news:

1. ABN Amro downgraded Reliance with a target of Rs 1,300. My target for Reliance is 1,500. I can’t imagine the market movement when Reliance is really in such a precarious condition.

2. Finance minister cautioned the investors about risks involved in stock markets.

3. Biggest risk in the Indian stock market is valuations. High valued stocks are rising further making the current markets extremely vulnerable to correction.

Positive News:

1. Jindal steel bagged $ 2.1 billion dollar contract from Bolivian government.

2. Reliance Communications sold 5% stake in tower business for Rs 270 billion rupee.

3. Renuka sugars board meet on July 26 to mull GDR issue.

4. L&T posted 130% rise in net profit. All the good news are factored in this stock.

5. Ashok Leyland posted 28% increase in net profit.

6. Ranbaxy announced wonderful results with 118% increase in net profit.

Negative News:

1. ACC reported 15% fall in net profit in Q2. Decrease in other income is the major reason.

2. Wipro will continue to lose its value for another 30-40 days. If rupee continues to appreciate, mid-sized IT companies will be worst hit.

3. Spice Communications valuations are unsustainable. It got premium listing just on account of positive sentiment in the telecom sector. Book profits.

Stock advice:

1. Invest in Omaxe IPO. Attractive pricing and low valuations are the major reasons.

2. Closely watch Tata Tele and Idea as they crossed resistance levels.

3. Long term investors should not invest in stocks like Divis, Reliance and other unrealistically valued stocks. Search for sound stocks at low valuations or keep your money in banks for some more time.

4. Hindustan Dorr-Olive is another good stock with strong growth prospects.

5. Consolidation in IFCI and IDBI is good for real investors. Accumulate on each decline.

6. Orchid Chemicals and Welspun Gujarat announced good results. Good growth.

7. Stay away from Zee News. Don’t take fresh exposure in this stock.

Safe stocks in this Bull Run: (Downside is limited)

1. Dr Reddys Labs and Ranbaxy.
2. IFCI and IDBI.
3. DCM Shriram is a contrarian buy. Land sale news will come at any time.

Best stocks for Day Traders and Investors:

1. Satyam Computers.
2. Tech Mahindra.
3. Reliance may continue to gain.
4. Reliance Energy may bounce back on orders.
5. Idea may continue its march if markets are strong.

Please share your stock recommendations here.

Indian stock Markets will make new highs

Indian share markets will open on positive note with selective buying in specific sectors like Real Estate, Sugar, Telecom and Financial sectors. Auto stocks will see heavy selling in their counters. Market indices will make new highs but may see some profit booking in the late session. Rising crude rate and mixed signals from Global markets are the only concerns.

Stock of the week: IFCI. Target is Rs 63-65.

IPO of the week: Everonn-Best stock for listing gains and Long term. Even though HDIL priced attractively, real estate sector may be in down trend at the time of listing.

Sector of the week: Real Estate due to DLF listing. DLF may not cross Rs 600 on listing. Book profits and exit.

Most significant news:

1. US federal reserve did not hike interest rates.

2. We will try to bring down the inflation to 3% - RBI.

3. DLF listing date is July 5.

4. BSE SENSEX may touch 50,000 by 2018- Morgan Stanley. Foreign investors are waiting for correction to enter into Indian stocks for long term.

Positive stock news:

1. IFCI board will announce stake sale in July 6 board meeting. There is enormous value left in this stock. Don’t book profits immediately.

2. Bank of Baroda sold 0.9% stake in NSE to Citi group at 2,282/share.

3. Tricom India announced wonderful results. Good stock for medium term.

4. Kernex Microsystems announced stock split and bonus.

5. Aurobindo Pharma announced 108% rise in net profit.

6. Tata steel will sell aluminium business of Corus.

7. GMR Infra announced 1:5 stock split.

8. CMC and Tata Technologies may merge with TCS but not Tata Elixi.

9. Emami posted good results and 63% increase in net profit.

10. Reliance Communications tied up with PBTL for international roaming.

11. Moser Baer will take price war to even new titles.

12. Wipro will buy Unza of Singapore.

13. Simplex Infrastructure bagged $11.1 million contract and rise in 29% profits.

14. Biocon will announce overseas listing by the end of next year. Long term investors should closely watch this stock to invest on dips.

15. Telecom companies may announce good subscriber numbers for the month of June.

16. Liberty shoes will dilute its stake in subsidiary to raise funds.

17. ICICI Bank approved $200 million loan to Videocon for acquisitions.

Negative stock news:

1. IPCL Q4 results are disappointing.

2. Bajaj Auto sales were down in June by 12%. Auto stocks will continue to feel the heat.

3. Infosys bidding is a speculation- Capgemini.

4. Tata steel lost bidding battle for Vietnam steel companies.

5. Dr Reddys is the lone Indian company in the SEC list of terrorist link companies.

6. Jewellery companies will be hit by US orders of withdrawal of concessions. Titan Industries will see selling pressure.

Stock advice:

1. Sugar stocks will continue to rise due to change in the fortunes of sugar prices. Keep trailing stop losses.

2. As I said in earlier posts, Investors at last recognised the true potential of GMR infra. You may exit the counter after another 15% rise and re-enter into wonderful stock on dips.

3. Financial stocks like IFCI, IDBI, IDFC, TFCI and PFC will continue to gain in the coming days. But you may get exceptional returns in IDBI and IDFC.

4. I suggested EID Parry for long term investors 10 days back. It already gave 10% returns within 10 days.

5. Capital goods index is at all time high. We may see some selling in this sector in July in spite of orders.

6. Medium term investors can enter into HUL –They will announce wonderful results and dividend. Bonus gossips are spreading.

7. Hinduja TMT will see some positive news within a short term. Risk taking investors can bet on this stock for short term.

8. You can accumulate Cairn India and RPL for long term.

9. Deepak fertilizers will give 10% returns in July due to monsoons and gas supply news.

10. Ranbaxy and Cipla may continue their positive momentum on Monday and Tuesday.

11. Global players want to buy some stake in Jet Lite. Buy Jet Airways on dips for short term gains.

Value stocks for long term investors: Best stocks in correction time.

1. Wire and Wireless.
2. Dish TV.
3. Cheviot.
4. RSWM and Welspun.
5. Raymonds- strictly long term.

Stock picks for medium-short term:

1. HDFC.
2. TCS-Results will not be as disappointing as analysts are thinking.
3. Kernex Microsystems-High risk and high returns.
4. Hindustan Lever.
5. Eastern Silks.

Stocks for day traders:

1. IFCI-Stake sale.
2. Aurobindo Pharma – Wonderful results.
3. RNRL and Tata Tele.
4. IDBI-Stake in IFCI.
5. Tricom India- Good results.
6. Renuka sugars and other sugar stocks – Positive momentum.
7. Unitech, Parsvanath and Sobha.
8. Ranbaxy and Cipla - with risk.
9. Sell IPCL.
10. Sell Bajaj Auto.
11. Sell Titan and Gitanjali Gems.
12. Sell HPCL and BPCL- Crude is above $70.

Why markets will crash in July?

Investors are in euphoric mood due to unexpected rise in the past 2 days. But future is looking bleak due to negative triggers. Except some sectors, most companies will announce disappointing results. It will be difficult for RBI to keep rupee value above 41 against dollar. If RBI will not hike interest rates, inflation will again move northwards. Crude price is another worry.

My advice: Some good stocks are at or near 1 year low. Take long positions in those stocks. Don’t take long positions in the sunrise stocks, most of them are near 52-week high. If markets undergo correction, they will suffer heavily. Sit on cash and buy on dips.

Please share your views on my analysis.

Flat markets with no major triggers

Indian stock markets will see marginal gains with gains in few specific stocks. If inflation is under control, markets will see buying in the mid session. Underperforming sectors like Cement and sugar stocks will shine due positive statements by finance minister.

Global cues: US markets are still in uncertain zone while Asian markets are in positive zone. Crude price is continuing its upward march.

Sector of the day: cement and Sugar (just my intuition).

Positive stock news:

1. Pfizer net profit rose by 7 times from Rs 35 crore to Rs 258 crore.
2. TATA Steel revived Rs 2,500 titanium project. Tata steel shares may bounce back today.
3. TCS is concentrating on Latin-America. It will acquire two IT firms in that region.
4. Infosys may acquire Capgemini.
5. IFCI is planning to sell 26% stake to institutional investors. I have invested in this stock. IFCI will definitely sell its stake at much higher price.
6. IDBI sold 2% stake in NSE.

Negative stock news:

1. SBI will hike home loan EMIs. NPAs will rise due to defaults.

My stock opinion:

1. As I said, Hindalco is returning back. Never invest in a stock just basing on the rumours. Shares of those stocks that rose without fundamentals will not able to sustain those valuations. I suspect the rise behind RPL even though it is a sound stock for long term.

2. Don’t get depressed by seeing the results of wire and wireless. It is a good long term story. Like telecom, investors will have to face losses in the initial stages due to big investments in the infrastructure. If you are a long term investor with 2-3 year horizon, it will be a multibagger. Accumulate this stock. Along with RPL, this stock will be future leaders in their field.

3. Cement companies may not sustain yesterday’s high rise for long term. Monsoon period is generally not good for cement companies.

4. Don’t be fooled by the Pfizer profits. Most of this income is from other sources but not from main businesses.

5. Due to good monsoon, fertiliser stocks will shine in the coming weeks.

6. ITL shares may see some selling pressure due to BSNL GSM equipment order troubles.

7. Religare bought ADK foods. Closely watch this stock as it is a acquisition target.

8. Tata Tea may bounce back on Cadbury buying rumours. Caution advised.

9. TVS Motors will continue to see selling pressure due to poor results.

10. Stay away from current IPOs. There will be good IPOs in the coming weeks.

11. Among entertainment stock, Shree Ahtavinayak is currently available at attractive value.

12. KRBL posted unimpressive results but stock is already bottomed out.

My stock investments in the last 3 days:

1. IFCI- So much value left in this stock.
2. Dhampur sugar mills – Low valuations. Strictly for long term.
3. Wire and Wireless – strictly for long term.
4. TFCI- short to medium term.
5. Hindustan Sanitary ware – with risk.
6. Mastek – Medium to long term.

Please share your opinion on my stock views.

Indian stocks may range bound

Indian stock markets may range bound today due to weakening rupee and lower inflation data. Day traders can make good gains if they trade smartly. Expiry of derivative contracts is the major obstacle.

Sector of the Day: IT Stocks and Banking. Dollar appreciation will be a positive trigger for IT stocks.

Stock recommendations for Long term Investors:

1. Tata Tele – Good scope for growth (1-2 year horizon). It will touch Rs 50 within 12-18 months.
2. Wire and Wireless – It will touch Rs 200 within 2 years. This stock is strictly for long term investors.
3. Larsen & Toubro – I still believe in the growth of this stock. It will cross Rs 2200 in June. Safe stock for long term investors if they forget short term fluctuations.

Best Stock picks for Day Traders:

1. Idea Cellular:
CMP: 122.85
Target: 126 and 129.5
Stop Loss: 120

2. Dena Bank:
CMP: 42.9
Target: 45 and 47.5
Stop Loss: 41

3. Ranbaxy:
CMP: 389.45
Target: 397
Stop Loss: 382

4. Infosys:
CMP: 1906.15
Target: 1943
Stop Loss: 1880

5. Gitanjali Gems:
CMP: 189.3
Target: 191.7
Stop Loss: 187

6. Reliance Communications:
CMP: 501.5
Target: 514
Stop Loss: 490

7. Air Deccan:
CMP: 130.9
Target: 135
Stop Loss: 127

8. NTPC, SAIL and L & T: (With risk)

My Views:

1. Stay away from oil refining stocks like BPCL and HPCL.
2. Tata power and Reliance Energy may range bound.
3. IT stocks will hog limelight today.
4. Investors can enter into RPL, SAIL and Hindalco if these stocks suffer losses today.
5. Banking stocks may gain on inflation data.

Stocks to watch out for:

IT Stocks, Punj Lloyd, Cummins India, JP Hydro power, Wire and Wireless, Apollo hospitals, Fortis Healthcare, Tata tea and Tata chemicals.

Significant News:

1. SEZs of Ambani brothers are in trouble.
2. IDEA and Spice Telecom merger.
3. Kingfisher and Air Deccan merger.

Please share your stock recommendations here.

Indian stocks will lose in the early session

Investors will book profits in the initial trading. Markets may recover partially in the mid and late session. Day traders may play with Idea, IFCI, RNRL and RPL in the afternoon session. Long term investors may enter into good Pharma stocks after correction. Book profits in India Infoline and Cipla.

Market sentiment: Bearish and Volatile.

Negative Triggers:

1. Expiry of derivative contracts.
2. Govermnet’s target for inflation is 4-4.5%.
3. Investors will book profits in the early session.
4. Asian markets are in the negative zone. Bad sentiment in the Chinese markets.
5. Rupee appreciation against dollar.
6. Prime minister is against gas based power projects.

Positive Triggers:

1. Indian ADRs gained significantly despite marginal gains in the US Stocks.
2. Prime Minister wants to spend Rs 25,000 crore in Agricultural sector.
3. National Stock Exchange (NSE) will introduce Futures and Options trading in CNX Nifty Junior and CNX 100 from June 1.
4. Vodafone is planning to invest Rs 8,000 crore in India.

New Listings:

Mc Dowel Holding, MIC Electronics and Insecticides India.

Stock picks for long term investors:

1. Hotel Leela and Indian hotels: These stocks will capitalize boom in the tourism sector in the coming years.
2. Tata Tele services: Good and safe bet for long term investors.
3. EID Parry: Ideal stock for high risk taking long term investors. It is near 1 year low.
4. Patni computers is the best stock if rupee weakens against dollar.

Hot stock recommendations for Day trading:

Advice: Be cautious in the early trade. Markets may lose in the early session due to bad sentiment in the Asian markets.

1. Ranbaxy:
CMP: 391
Target: 395
Stop Loss: 386
It won case against Pfizer.

2. NTPC:
CMP: 160.7
Target: 162
Stop Loss: 158.5
NTPC will take over700 MW power plant in Assam.

3. Zee:
CMP: 312.8
Target: 317.5
Stop loss: 308

4. Ansal Properties and Gayatri projects.

5. Aurobindo Pharma:
CMP: 695.7
Target: 698
Stop loss: 693
US FDA approval.

6. Bharti Airtel: (With Risk)

Stocks to watch out:

L & T, BHEL, Britannia, Tata Power, Tata Chemicals, Crompton greeves and Welspun.
Be cautious in the early session and enter into good stocks to book profits after initial correction.

Share your opinion on my stock recommendations.

Do you believe in research reports by Stock Analysts?

Outlook Business published a very good article on stock recommendations and research reports by equity analysts. The article raised an interesting point on how leading research stock advisors misguided investors in the Jet Airways IPO. The article listed 39 stock recommendations by leading research houses where innocent investors suffered heavy losses. It is a must read article for every investor.

How to identify best stock recommendations?

My Advice: Read and Listen their advice. Do your own research before entering into that stock. Retail investor is the last person to hear about their recommendations.

Business Today magazine conducted a poll to select best equity analysts in India. It is somewhat better to believe in their stock picks.

SSKI emerged as the leading stock research house in India followed by Kotak Securities.

Best Equity analysts in India:

1. Sanjeev Prasad – Kotak Securities
Sectors: Media, Oil & Gas, Telecom and Chemicals.

2. Shirish Rane – SSKI Securities
Sectors: Cement, Power, Construction and Real Estate.

3. Jesal Shah – JP Morgan
Sectors: Pharma.
Best analyst in the Pharma sector with 13 years experience.

4. Manish Saxena – Deutsche Securities
Sectors: Capital Goods, Cement and Utilities.

5. Prabhat Awasthi – BRICS Securities
Sectors: Media and Auto.

6. Priyanko Panja – Edelweiss Securities
Sectors: Capital Goods, Construction and Telecom.

7. Rahul Singh – City Investment Research
Sectors: Telecom and Oil & Gas

Please share your opinion on research reports of these stock analysts. Do you invest according to their recommendations?

Indian Markets – Trade with caution

Markets are waiting for new triggers. BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty will continue their uncertainty. Concentrate on few stocks instead of index movements. Rupee appreciation is the only negative trigger which may spoil current Bull Run.

Market Trend: Volatile/ Bullish.

Significant news:

1. Crude price is returning to normal. You may get marginal gains in HPCL and BPCL.
2. US markets are stagnated and waiting for triggers like Indian markets.
3. Asian markets are in mixed momentum.
4. Rupee may touch 38.5 against dollar –UBS.

Stock picks for short and medium term investors:

1. SAIL: it may cross 160 in the short term.
2. Aftek: It will cross 80 in the short term.
3. JSW steel: Thiss tock may continue its bull run along with SAIL.

Stock Recommendation for Long Term investors:

1. Larsen and Toubro: It is consolidating its core business while entering future growth sectors like Shipping. Its P/E is also at attractive level. This is my stock pick for investors with 2-3 year horizon.

Stock recommendations for Day traders:

1. Bata: Reliance retail may tie up with Bata.
CMP: 169.9
Target: 174 and 177.5
Stop Loss: 167

2. NTPC:
CMP: 154.6
Target: 156.5 and 158.7
Stop Loss: 152.8
NTPC is to sell electricity to CESC.

3. Torrent Power: It signed a MOU with Gujarat power to set up 1000 MW power plant.
CMP: 75.7
Target: 78 and 80
Stop loss: 71.5

4. Tata Tea: (caution: Investors may book profits)
CMP: 878
Target: 897 and 916
Stop loss: 844

5. HPCL and BPCL.

Stock to watch out:

Reliance Industries, Bharat Forge, Reliance Communications, Tata tea, Ceat, RNRL, Tata Tele and Sun TV.

Dangerous stocks of the day:

1. Stay away from Dabur India as its flagship brand Glucose-D is in packaging troubles. Supreme Court restrained Dabur from using Glucose-D.

2. Stay away from Punjab tractors as this company reported 39% decline in profits.

3. Indian government scrapped 98% of IEMs obtained by sugar companies. Stay away from Bajaj Hindustan and Balrampur chini. Though this news may not impact them much, it spoils the positive sentiment.

4. Fortis and Trehan row may not end in the near term. You may buy Fortis health care stock at attractive price within 3-4 days.

5. Stay away from Alembic Pharma (poor results).

Results today:

1. ICRA
2. Divi Labs
3. Torrent Pharma.
4. NIIT Tech.

Please share your views on Indian stocks.

Stock Markets may see some correction on tuesday

Indian stock markets will correct on Tuesday due to profit booking, rupee appreciation and rise in crude oil price in the initial session. Markets may recover to some extent in the afternoon session.

US markets gave no significant clues while European markets rose due to rise in metal and crude prices. Indian markets will not follow global and Asian markets on Tuesday (My opinion).

Sentiment: Bullish/Volatile.

Positive trigger:

Rise in metal prices. Metal stocks will shine on Tuesday.

Warning News:

1. Crude oil price surged past $70 due to unrest in Nigeria. Reliance and Government oil refining stocks will suffer losses.

2. Front line stocks like Reliance Industries rose too much without any reason. This may play spoilsport to the market sentiment.

Stock recommendation for long term investors:

1. Idea Cellular:
Stock will cross 250 within one year due to exponential growth in Telecom space. This is the safe bet for long term investors.

Hot Stock picks for Day Traders:

1. Raj TV:
CMP: 262
Target: 271 and 277.
Stop Loss: 252
DMK-Raj TV alliance will trigger short-term growth for this network. It may cross 300 in this week. It bagged licences to launch 3 new channels.

2. TV 18:
CMP: 850
Target: 881
Stop Loss: 807
It forms an alliance with Virgin comics. It plans to launch an entertainment channel.
Caution: Investors may book profits in the initial session.

3. Orbit Corporation:
CMP: 229.5
Target: 233 and 237
Stop Loss: 222
Net profit rose 8,533% while sales rose 4,190%.

4. Satyam:
CMP: 447.5
Target: 457
Stop Loss: 443
Satyam signed contract with Hawker Beechcraft Corporation.
Caution: Rupee Vs Dollar.

5. Ranbaxy:
CMP: 400.7
Target: 403.5 and 406.5
Stop Loss: 398.3
Ranbaxy received approval to market Pravastatin in Canada.

6. Sterlite, Hindalco and Hindustan Zinc- Closely watch metal prices.

7. Dr Reddy’s Labs: Unexpected loss on Monday.

8. Reliance Energy and Reliance Communication will continue their bull run.

9. Closely watch Wockhardt, Tata Motors and NDTV.

Negative Stock Picks for Investors:

1. Stay away from SUN TV. Its quarrel with DMK government hits nadir.
2. Stay away from Everest Kanto.
3. Stay away from oil refining stocks like HPCL, BPCL and IOC.
4. Stay away from Apollo Tyres.

Please share your stock recommendations.

Will Indian Share Markets test new highs?

The Indian Stock markets may continue their volatility. Investors should trade in select stocks with cautious optimism. Markets may be bullish due to Global sentiment and rise in copper price or bearish due to profit booking and rupee rise.

Market sentiment: Though sentiment is bullish, profit booking and rising rupee may become obstacles to the bulls.

Positive Signs:

1. Asian markets are in positive momentum.
2. Reserve Bank of India allowed Navaratna PSUs like HPCL, BPCL, IOC, ONGC and GAIL to invest in foreign shores without prior permission.
3. United Spirits may gain another 50-70.

Negative Signs:

1. Rupee is appreciating against dollar. It will spoil the plans and expectations of exporters.
2. Textile exports took a big hit due to rupee appreciation.
3. RBI tightened foreign borrowing for Real estate firms.
4. Metal prices may fall in the long term. But may be volatile in this week.
5. Investors may book profits in stocks like SBI and Unitech.
6. Fortis India may feel the heat of Tehran row.
7. Tata Motors plant in Singur is still in troubled water.

Stock pick of the Month:

1. Dr Reddys Labs:
It may touch 750-800 mark within 20-30 trading sessions. Its superb results and announcement of 2 SEZs will make this stock a hot one for investors.
Concern: Rising rupee may spoil the party.

Stock Recommendations for Day Traders:

1. Dr Reddys – Good results and 2 SEZs.

2. Everest Kanto – Stock split.
CMP: 1158.5
Target: 1180
Stop Loss: 1120

3. SAIL: It will announce good results.
CMP: 139
Target: 140.3 and 142
Stop Loss: 137.5

4. Sterlite India -Rise in copper price.


5. Cairn India
CMP: 144.5
Target: 147.5 and 150
Stop Loss: 139

6. ICI India – Rise in offer price.
CMP: 526.6
Target: 541
Stop Loss: 516.

7. Union Bank – China entry.

Business Standard Stocks of the week:

1. Reliance Industries
2. HDFC Bank
3. Moser Baer

For more information about other stock recommendations, Visit Business standard website.

Economic Times Stocks of the week:

1. SBI and Jai Prakash associates.
To know more about other stock picks, visit Economic Times website.

Reliance Money stock of the week:

1. Apollo Tyres.

ICICI direct stock of the week:

1. Bartronics India.
Please share your views on Indian stocks.

Best Stock picks for Indian Day Traders

Indian Share markets may continue their volatility in the short term with no significant positive cues in the domestic or Global markets. Long term investors may enter into markets after impending correction. Short term traders should concentrate on few stocks especially Mid caps.

Market Sentiment: Volatile swings. IT shares may suffer heavy losses due to bad sentiment and rupee appreciation. Stocks like Reliance Capital may range-bound.

Warning News:

1. IMF said cooling effects of US subprime markets will affect other emerging markets.

2. H-1B issue: 2 US senators asked Infosys and Wipro to submit details of their workforce. Stay away from IT stocks unless Dollar appreciates against rupee.

3. Sun TV lost Rs 936 crore market capitalisation on BSE in the last 5 trading sessions.

4. Tata Tele posted unimpressive results.

5. IOC revenue loss per day on petro product sales is Rs 85 crore.

Positive News:

1. GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd (GVKPIL), an infrastructure company, has completed a $300 million Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP).

2. Hindalco completed Novelis acquisition.

3. Moser Baer will buy 15%-20% of new releases this year.

Stock Recommendation for Medium Term Investors:

1. Bajaj Auto: Demerger of this company will enhance the value of Investors – Business Standard.

Best Stock Picks for Day Traders:

1. United Breweries: (Only on BSE)
CMP: 362
Target: 364 and 367
Stop Loss: 358
United Spirits:
CMP: 833.7
Target: 855
Stop Loss: 824
It acquired Scottish distiller Whyte and Mackay for an enterprise value of 550 million pounds

2. Reliance Industries: ( May open with very high)
CMP: 1598.5
Target: 1615 and 1634
Stop Loss: 1583
Reliance Industries made 2 gas discoveries in west coast and Krishna basin.

3. Hindustan Construction Company (HCC):
CMP: 98.2
Target: 100, 101.5 and 103
Stop Loss: 95
HCC bagged Rs. 735 crore irrigation tunnel work from Andhra Pradesh government.

4. Videocon:
CMP: 426.15
Target: 434
Stop Loss: 417
It plans to set up a LCD manufacturing unit in China.

5. Bharti Airtel: (High Risk with profit booking by investors)
CMP: 833.9
Target: 846
Stop Loss: 820
Bharti entered into Sri Lankan market. Its clash with Wal-Mart over brand usage may be dampener.

6. TVS Motors:
CMP: 62.2
Target: 63 and 64.2
Stop Loss: 61
TVS motors will launch new bike “Neo” in Indonesia.

7. Hindalco, Raymond and Moser Baer.