Black Friday for Indian share market investors

D-Day finally arrived. Indian stock markets will be suffered huge losses and will see a panic selling from investors on black Friday. Nifty will fall below the final support point that exists at 4090 and BSE Sensex may lose 300-400 points. Long term investors can buy sound stocks at attractive price after the heavy fall. Though fall in markets is bad, it is good for long term investors.

Sentiment: Indian investors will see second biggest crash of 2007. All the global markets have suffered huge losses especially Dow Jones and Japan and Taiwan markets.

Sector of the day: IT and Sugar shares will be in lime light due to Government decision to allow sugar mills to retain central excise for 3 years from 2007 July.

Good signs:
1. Inflation is under control and it will be around 5%. Stocks may bounce back in the afternoon session due to inflation data or over correction.
2. Dollar may gain on weak currency.

Stock of the Day: Patni computers.

My stocks:

Enter into these stocks after the crash. Risk taking investors can take future positions in good stocks.

1. Sterlite India Industries.
2. Hindustan construction company (HCC)-Medium term.
3. Ispat industries – Long term.
4. Mahindra and Mahindra- short-medium term.
5. Idea Cellular.
6. Reliance Communications.
7. Patni Computers.
8. Cambridge Solutions.
9. Tata Chemicals.
10. Suzlon Energy.
11. Aurobindo Pharma and Glenmark Pharma.
12. AIA Engineering.
13. Alok Industries.

Significant stock news:

1. Textile sector will get relief package from government within a week or so. Take short term bet on textile stocks.
2. Tamilnadu petrochemicals- short-medium term with some risk.

Stock advice:

1. Mahindra and Mahindra will be going to rise in short term due to lack of options in auto sector.
2. I don’t believe in this Hindalco rise. It is a clear sign of herd mentality and I can’t understand why investors always fell in the trap of operators.
3. Risk taking investors can take short position in Tata tea.

Positive stock News:

1. Tantia construction received $1.8 billion order.
2. Patni computers will continue to rise on stake sale.
3. HCC got contract from Tata Steel.
4. Biocon signed MOU with an Australian University.
5. ONGC Board approved Rs 1200 crore investment to develop oss-shore fields in Mumbai high. 6. Mahindra and Mahindra is in acquisition mood in Italy.
7. Marico industries in restructuring mood and good bet for medium term.
8. Biotech industry touched $2 billion revenue in 2006-07 financial year.
9. Cambridge solutions is a good bet for short term.

Negative stock news:

1. Idea and Spice telecom called off merger deal. Invest in Spice IPO.
2. Tata motors decreased car production by 20% and delayed launch for India. Closely watch Tata motors, it may available at attractive value by mid July.
3. Negative momentum in Auto stocks will continue for another 10-15 days.
4. Hindalco will lose more around 7-10%.
5. Hindustan Zinc will suffer losses due to fall in Zinc prices.
6. Oil refining stocks will lose yesterday’s gains.

Day traders should stay away from Indian markets. Today is black Friday.

Please share your comments on my stock recommendations and analysis. Please share your views.

Unpredictable markets-news based trading

Indian stocks are moving in unpredictable ways with momentum is concentrated on few select stocks. One thing is sure correction due within a short period. Investors may take long positions in blue chips after the correction. Risk taking investors may buy stocks like EID Parry, Wire and Wireless, FDC Pharma, Berger paints and Rajashree sugars.

Stock advice: Don’t believe in the rumours of Hindalco and IDEA take overs.

Sector of the day: Sugar. IT Shares will be in reckoning if Dollar appreciates against rupee.

Market sentiment: Unpredictable markets. Forget index. Concentrate on select stocks.

Significant news:

1. Government will create 3 million tonnes of sugar buffer stocks to check fall in prices.
2. Aircel, Spice and Idea may merge to form a new entity. Invest in Idea for medium term. Target- Rs 145.

Positive Stock news:

1. Unitech received nod for establishment of IT SEZs at Greater Noida and Kolkata.
2. Cement companies like ACC and Gujarat Ambuja announced increase in sales.
3. Sterlite ADS will be listen in Mid June.
4. Parsvnath launched Rs 6 billion township.
5. ONGC bought stake in 3 Brazilian blocks.
6. JSW steel posted 36% jump in crude steel production.
7. Fortis appointed new medical team at Escorts heart institute.
8. Bajaj will launch LPG bike soon.

Negative stock news:

1. Bombay high court rejected Reliance Energy plea on MTHL.

Best Indian stocks for day traders:

1. Mount Everest: Open offer to buy a further 20% stake by Tata Tea at Rs 140.
2. Idea Cellular:
3. Sterlite:
4. GAIL: (with risk).
5. JSW Steel:
6. MTNL:
7. Shree Renuka sugars.
8. NIIT Tech: (Closely watch rupee value).

Stocks to watch out:

1. ONGC.
2. Parsvnath developers.
3. Fortis healthcare.

Please share your stock views.

Bears will dominate Indian Stock markets

Indian stock markets will lost around 150-200 points in the initial session on Thursday. Banking stocks will suffer heavy losses. If CRR hike is true, Markets may lose more than 300 points. It is better for investors to stay away from Indian share markets.

Market trend: Bearish/ Crash.

Rumour of the day:

1. RBI will hike CRR on Friday.

Significant News:

1. Global markets ended negatively. Indian ADRs suffered losses. Asian markets are in down ward trend.

2. Monsoon may be delayed by 3-4 days.

3. Alcohol consumption in India surpassed Juices and carbonated drinks. United spirits is a good bet for long term investors even at this price.

4. Crude price is gaining. Stay away from BPCL and HPCL.

Best stock picks for Day traders:

1. Alembic:
CMP: 65.6
Target: 70
Stop Loss: 58
It will receive Rs 45 crore as mile stone payment from Belgium Company.

2. Bharti Airtel:
CMP: 850.2
Target: 860
Stop Loss: 840
It crossed 40 million subscribers and reached top 10 cell operators in the world.

3. NIIT Tech:
CMP: 523
Target: 537
Stop Loss: 508
133% increase in net profit.
Concern: Rupee appreciation.

4. Hindustan lever:
CMP: 198.55
Target: 201 and 203.5
Stop Loss: 193

5. Sterlite Opticals:
It begged Rs 170 crore MTNL broadband contract.
CMP: 206
Target: 213
Stop Loss: 200

Stocks to watch out:

1. Idea cellular.
2. JSW Steel.
3. Divi's Labs.

Stay away from following Indian Stocks:

1. Dr Reddys, Torrent Pharma and Cadila received noticed from Government for increasing MRP of331 drugs. Stay away from these stocks.

2. Stay away from banking stocks due to CRR hike concerns.

3. Stay away from oil refining stocks due to rise in crude price.

Please share your views on movements of Indian stock markets.