Black days will continue for Global stock markets

Global markets are continuing their correction due to credit crisis concerns. US and Asian markets are falling with 2-6% correction in the last 2 days. Indian share markets will trade according to global trends for some more time due to FII selling. No one is giving exact guidance over the severity of this crisis. Subprime crisis added fuel to the already overvalued global markets. Watch from sidelines how this crisis will influence world markets and learn lessons for future investments.

Global Stock markets:

Courtesy: Bloomberg.

Global markets fell on second consecutive day. Dow Jones lost 167 points after the volatility in the initial trading session. Asian Stocks are near their 3-month low and Indian markets will follow their global peers. Uncertainty over the magnitude of subprime crisis is the major factor behind this melt down. Will more pain is on the cards? Wait for some more time.

Market Movements:

1. BSE Sensex: Sensex may lose 400-500 points in the initial session.
CMP: 15016.
Target: 14850 and lower.

2. NSE Nifty: Nifty may lose 150-200 points in the initial session.
CMP: 4375.
Target: 4310 and lower.

Positive Stock Market News:

1. DLF will buy DCM Shriram land for 1,600 crore.
2. Punj Lloyd sold 11% stake to private investors for 814 crore.
3. Bharti Airtel will launch 2G and 3G services in Sri Lanka.
4. Demerger of ICI India is on the cards due to acquisition of ICI by Akzo.
5. 2009 is the year of consolidation in banking sector.
6. Vedanta sold Sterlite gold for 320 crore.
7. Idea Cellular is the front runner for ICC sponsorship.
8. Bharti Airtel hiked local call rates along with SMS charges.

Negative Stock Market News:

1. Clear slowdown in consumer spending in US due to credit concerns – Wal-Mart.
2. Govt. Allowed cement imports to curb rising cement prices.
3. Expansion plans of India Inc will slow down – Morgan Stanley.
4. Government may move court on Reliance Gas price – Hindustan Times.
5. United Spirits debt rose due to W&M buy.
6. Tata Steel’s Titanium project is in trouble due to land acquisition problems.
7. Global markets will correct by 30-40% - Mark Faber.

Stock Market Analysis:

1. IPTV is set to boom. IOL Broadband is the biggest beneficiary.
2. Foreign Investors are real culprits behind this abnormal rise and fall of Indian Stocks.
3. According to my view, BSE Sensex will touch 14,000 mark in August and Share markets will bounce back after this subprime market crisis is over.
4. Enter into growth stocks like Punj Lloyd, Moser Baer, Bharti Airtel, Reliance Companies, L&T, BHEL, and ABB after the correction. Believe in the long term growth story of India.
5. Short term investors may suffer heavy losses in the coming days. Don’t take highly leveraged positions in these volatile times.
6. Mic Electronics is the best stock for long term investors.
7. Don’t do bottom fishing in sugar sector. More pain will come in the coming quarters.
8. Bharat Forge, Bajaj Hindustan, Tata Motors, Mastek, Tata Tea, TCS, Cipla are some contra buys for long term investors with 18-24 month horizon.
9. Sanjay Dutt arrest may spell doom for some distribution companies in the short term.
10. Fortis Healthcare is my favourite stock for long term investment. I have holding in this stock.
11. Takeover targets like Spice Tele, Spicejet may bring value to investors in the coming quarters.
12. Tata Tele and Essar Oil are my favourite turn around stories. I am also betting big on Ispat for long term.
13. Conservative investors should stay away from share markets for some more time.

Best Stocks for Day Traders:

1. DCM Shriram Consolidated.
CMP: 87.
Target: 90.

2. 90% of Index stocks will fall due to global melt down. Risk takers may bet on IT stocks to recover if rupee depreciates against dollar.

Stocks in NSE F&O ban: Nagarjuna Fertilisers and Omaxe.

Indian Stock Markets may follow global markets

Indian Stock Markets may follow the global counterparts. Markets may start in positive mood due to positive news from global markets. All the global markets are in positive breadth. Crude is at $64 and rupee is steady.

Tip of the Month: As per research, investors generally sell in May and enter into markets in November. Earnings are generally low in May-November period.

Daily Stock picks for Day Traders:

1. Moser Baer – (355.85)

Resistance – 364 and 372
Support – 342 and 328
Moser Baer reporting increase in net profit to Rs 39.72 crore for the last quarter ended March 31. This is against Rs 35 lakh for the corresponding previous period.

2. Apollo Tyres – (315.9).

Resistanace is at – 326.78 and 337.67
Support is at – 298 and 280.

Apollo Tyres Ltd said its board had approved a move to split each of its share into 10. Apollo Tyres reported net profit of Rs 42.71 crore in Q4 versus Rs 26.38 crore in comparable period.

3. Reliance Petro – (80.95)

Resistance – 81.7, 82.4 and 83.4
Support – 80 and 79

4. Suzlon Energy – (1187.5)

Resistance – 1210 and 1233.
Support – 1162 and 1137.

Suzlon Energy bags contact to supply wind turbines of 400 MW capacity to US Based PPM energy.

5. IBP – (441.4)

Resistance – 448.6 and 455.8
Support – 434.6 and 427.8

6. Tata Chemicals – (217.95)

Resiastance – 220.4, 222.98 and 225. 97
Support – 214.9 and 211.9

7. Deccan Aviation – (104)

Resistance – 106.6 and 109.2
Support – 102 and 101.

Company Results:

Following companies will announce results today. Closely follow these stocks today and Day Traders should invest immediately if these companies announce good results. Speed of execution is crucial.

1. Eicher Motors – (270.75)
Resistance – 276, 281 and 287.
Support – 264 and 258.

2. Aditya Birla Nuvo – (1147.45)
Resistance – 1159.9, 1172.35 and 1189.8
Support – 1130 and 1112.

3. IFCI – (44.75)
Resistance– 46.9 and 49.
Support– 41 and 38.

4. Kansai nerolac – (718.75)
Resistance – 733 and 748.
Support – 709 and 700.

5. Orchid Chemicals – (258.4)
Resistance – 266.9 and 275.4
Support – 253 and 247.6

6. HDFC – (1666.35)
Resistance – 1696 and 1722
Support – 1633 and 1600

7. Varun Shipping – (60.4)
Resistance – 66 and 72
Support – 56 and 52

8. United Phosphorous Ltd. – (330.55)
Resistance – 342.9 and 355.3
Support – 320 and 309.6


Positive news for Day Traders:

1. Tech Mahindra was ranked as one of the top 10 leaders in Global outsourcing business.
2. Maruti car sales rose again in April after a dip in March.
3. Hero Honda sales rose in April.
4. Usher Agro net profit jumps 233% for Q3.
5. Tata Sons consolidated its stake in Tata Tea.
6. Steel companies may raise prices.
7. The Union Ministry of Company Affairs has approved the merger of IBP Ltd with IOC.
8. Tata chemicals is in massive expansion plan.

Negative News for Stock Investors:

1. Stay away from Gayatri projects due to its poor results.
2. Tata Motors commercial vehicle sales fell in April but total sales rose around 11%.
3. TVS Motors sales down in April.
4. I-Flex technologies results are not impressive.

Black Tuesday-Stay away from Indian Stock markets

Indian stock markets may lose heavily due to RBI measures to tighten inflation, bad news from global markets and unrealistic surge in the past 7 trading sessions. Black Mondays are common in Stock markets, but black Tuesdays are rare. Today we will see heavy selling from panic investors. Markets may lose around 400 points today. Day traders should stay away from markets today. Long term investors may buy some good stocks at low valuations in the afternoon session like Idea cellular.

News of the Day: The Reserve Bank said year-on- year inflation was higher at 5.7 per cent at the end of fiscal 2006-07, indicating more measures to tighten its credit policy to be announced on Tuesday.

Ceat and Bhrat Shipyard may gain today due to unexpected losses yesteraday.

Global Markets: All the global markets suffered heavy losses. This is a bad news for the Indian markets also. Indian ADRs were also suffered yesterday.

Positive news:

1. Idea cellular is on track to touch one billion dollar mark. This is a stock for medium-long term investors.
2. Matsushita Electric Works (MEW) of Japan, owners of the National and Panasonic brands, has acquired 80 per cent equity stake in the privately held Anchor Electricals for Rs 2,000 crore.
3. Adlabs Films is entering into distribution of non-Indian movies.
4. TATA Motors is launching "ACE" into Nepal market.

Bank stocks, Auto Stocks and construction stocks may available at low values in the coming weeks.

Day traders guide for Indian Stock market – April 12, 2007

Today is going to be another worst day for markets. BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty may lose heavily due to bad news from global markets and warnings from RBI and IMF. Markets may lose around 200 points.

IMF and RBI issued warnings to the investors about the effects of rising inflation and rapid credit growth. As per IMF report, investors may not be giving sufficient weight to downside risks leaving markets vulnerable to the possibility of a shock. The risks are being amplified by the increased linkages across financial products and markets

Statement of the Day: Inflation may touch 7% - RBI Governor.
News of the day: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast that Indian economy will grow at 7.8 per cent in 2008.

Global Markets:

Global markets lost heavily due to concerns about rate hike, rising inflation and slow down in US economy. Japanese market is the worst sufferer. All the Indian ADRs lost marginally.
Crude oil price: It rises due to unexpected decline in Gasoline supply.

IFCI and TCS will rise while Sesa Goa will lose.

Stocks for Day traders:

Ranbaxy and GAIL are some positives stocks.
Reliance Capital entered into online trading through flat fee structure.
Pantaloon and ITC tie up for food segment.
Ballarpur industries will announce results today.
Reliance Communication and Sun TV ink pact for mobile content.
Blue Dart plans to spend Rs 220 million in South.

Stocks to be avoided today:

Exports of textile products to the US were declined by over 3% in dollar terms during January 2007, as compared to the corresponding month a year ago.
Stay away from Idea and Bharti Airtel due to decrease in subscriber additions.
Car sales hit 13 month low – Stay away from Maruti.
Novartis may stop further investments in India.
Gujarat Ambuja Cements Ltd’s (Rs.107.85, Sell) March shipments have fallen by 4.5%.

Investment strategy for day traders (April 4, 2007)

Indian Stock market outlook for Wednesday:

This is going to be one of the good days for Day traders. Markets will gain at least 200-250 points.

Global Markets:

All the global markets rose substantially. Indian markets will respond in the same manner.

Stocks for Day Traders:

Indian Hotels, Zee, Orchid Chemicals and Ranbaxy. Day traders can bet big on Orchid Chemicals.

Advice for Long term Investors:

Sell ‘Infosys’ shares – It will announce less than favourable future growth.
Stay away from Real Estate, Banking, Consumer Finance and Auto shares. I can’t understand why investors bought these stocks on Tuesday.

Stocks for Long term Investors:

Ashok Leyland and Finolex Cables.

Please share your idea.