Indian stock markets on Monday

Indian share markets may continue their volatile run with positive triggers from global markets and metal prices and negative triggers from profit booking and expiry of contracts.

Advice for traders: Stock specific action will be seen.

Market movement: Volatile/Bullish. Global markets and Asian markets are showing positive trends. Expiry of derivative contracts will be a major negative trigger. Be careful.

Significant News:

1. Decline in net profit of Indian companies compared to previous quarters.
Net profit in Q2 - 43%, Q3 – 76% and Q4 – 38.8%.
2. Metal prices and crude oil price rose again.
3. IOC and OIL set to pick up 50% stake in Nigerian block.
4. RBI diluted norms for outsourcing firms in India to draw foreign exchange.
5. SBI is on mega expansion plans.
6. Reliance Communication and Bharti Airtel are on overseas expansion plans while Idea cellular may acquire Spice telecom.

Stock Picks for Day Traders:

1. Mahindra and Mahindra:
CMP: 731.8
Target: 740 and 748
Stop Loss: 714
Results, increase in sales and news of inclusion in BSE-100.

2. Idea Cellular:
CMP: 125.8
Target: 128.3
Stop Loss:120
Idea and Spice Telecom may merger to emerge as the fifth largest telecom company.

3. Cipla:
CMP: 205
Target: 207.2 and 210.
Stop Loss: 201
Cipla got approval to sell Retrovir of Glaxo.

4. SAIL:
CMP: 148.1
Target: 150.6 and 152.5
Stop Loss: 143.7
SAIL will acquire Nilachal Ispat Nigam in Orissa for over 1,000crore.

5. TCS: (Risk of rupee appreciation).
CMP: 1229
Target: 1238 and 1247.
Stop Loss: 1210
TCS bought Brazil partner’s stake.

6. HDFC: Safe bet.
CMP: 1816.6
Target: 1870
Stop loss: 1735
HDFC has broken technical resistance.

7. BHEL: Safe bet.
CMP: 2702.8
Target: 2724 and 2752
Stop Loss: 2668
Good results.

8. NTPC: Safe bet.
CMP: 163.7
Target: 165 and 167
Stop Loss: 160
Rumours on foreign joint venture.

9. Sterlite: (High risk)
CMP: 546.9
Target: 560
Stop Loss: 515
Rise in metal prices.

10. Dishman Pharma:
CMP: 241.5
Target: 246
Stop loss: 236
It will announce results may be good ones.

11. Fortis Healthcare, Ranbaxy and Jindal stainless.

12. Tata Tea and GMR infra are other good stocks.

Stocks to watch out for:

IVRCL Infra, Rolta, Bharti Airtel, NIIT Tech, HCL Tech, Tata Tea, GMR Infra, Moser Baer, IPCA labs, Ranbaxy and Voltas.

Stay away from following stocks:

1. Reliance energy will continue to face obstacles from Mayawati government.
2. Welspun group not to renew Tommy Hilfiger deal.
3. Book profits in Suzlon.

Stocks of the week (Economic Times):

Cairn India, GMR Infra and Thermax.

Stock pick by Economic Times: SAIL for Long term investors.

ICICIdirect.com pick of the week:

Finolex Industries.

Reliance Money stock of the week:

Punj Lloyd.

SEBI decisions:

1. Futures and Options trading in Nifty Junior stocks from June 1st.
2. New rules for short selling in equity markets for domestic and foreign investors from the 1st week of July.
3. M&M will replace Hero Honda in the Sensex. Other inclusions in the BSE-100 are Aban Offshore, Biocon, Cairn India, Dish TV, Tech Mahindra and Indiabulls Real Estate.
4. Karnataka Bank and Yes Bank are included in the BSE Banking Index.
5. Moserbaer and Rolta are new entrants into BSE IT Index.

Closely watch rupee Vs dollar, profit booking and impact of expiry of derivative contracts.
Please share your views on Indian stock markets.

Will Indian Share Markets test new highs?

The Indian Stock markets may continue their volatility. Investors should trade in select stocks with cautious optimism. Markets may be bullish due to Global sentiment and rise in copper price or bearish due to profit booking and rupee rise.

Market sentiment: Though sentiment is bullish, profit booking and rising rupee may become obstacles to the bulls.

Positive Signs:

1. Asian markets are in positive momentum.
2. Reserve Bank of India allowed Navaratna PSUs like HPCL, BPCL, IOC, ONGC and GAIL to invest in foreign shores without prior permission.
3. United Spirits may gain another 50-70.

Negative Signs:

1. Rupee is appreciating against dollar. It will spoil the plans and expectations of exporters.
2. Textile exports took a big hit due to rupee appreciation.
3. RBI tightened foreign borrowing for Real estate firms.
4. Metal prices may fall in the long term. But may be volatile in this week.
5. Investors may book profits in stocks like SBI and Unitech.
6. Fortis India may feel the heat of Tehran row.
7. Tata Motors plant in Singur is still in troubled water.

Stock pick of the Month:

1. Dr Reddys Labs:
It may touch 750-800 mark within 20-30 trading sessions. Its superb results and announcement of 2 SEZs will make this stock a hot one for investors.
Concern: Rising rupee may spoil the party.

Stock Recommendations for Day Traders:

1. Dr Reddys – Good results and 2 SEZs.

2. Everest Kanto – Stock split.
CMP: 1158.5
Target: 1180
Stop Loss: 1120

3. SAIL: It will announce good results.
CMP: 139
Target: 140.3 and 142
Stop Loss: 137.5

4. Sterlite India -Rise in copper price.


5. Cairn India
CMP: 144.5
Target: 147.5 and 150
Stop Loss: 139

6. ICI India – Rise in offer price.
CMP: 526.6
Target: 541
Stop Loss: 516.

7. Union Bank – China entry.

Business Standard Stocks of the week:

1. Reliance Industries
2. HDFC Bank
3. Moser Baer

For more information about other stock recommendations, Visit Business standard website.

Economic Times Stocks of the week:

1. SBI and Jai Prakash associates.
To know more about other stock picks, visit Economic Times website.

Reliance Money stock of the week:

1. Apollo Tyres.

ICICI direct stock of the week:

1. Bartronics India.
Please share your views on Indian stocks.

Stock Markets are in the grip of operators

Indian Share markets are experiencing huge swings due to buying and selling by smart operators. Ordinary investors may have lost big money in these wild swings. Retail investors and day traders should tread cautiously in volatile times. Crude oil price rose again on supply concerns.

Market Movement: Bullish.

Warning News: Central banks may tighten liquidity. It is not a good sign for medium term investors.

Best Stock Picks for Day Traders:

1. JK Cement
274% jump in Q4 net profit. Net turnover was increased by 49%.

2. Shree Cement
CMP: 1037.7
Target: 1067
Stop Loss: 1007
It will announce good results today.

3. NTPC
CMP: 154.9
Target: 157
Stop Loss: 150

4. Novartis India

5. Lanco Infratech
CMP: 157.3
Target: 159.3 and 162
Stop Loss: 154

6. Reliance Communications
CMP: 478
Target: 486
Stop Loss: 458
It will likely get additional spectrum.

Positive News:

1. Inflation is under control.
2. Asian Markets are trading positively.
3. ONGC subsidiary Mangalore Refinery posted 41% jump in the last financial year.

Negative News:

1. Reliance Energy’s ambitious plans may be halted due to change of guard in Uttar Pradesh.
2. Stay away from Arvind mills.
3. ICICI Bank will be investigated by MRTPC for making false promises to its credit card customers.
4. Stay away from Hero Honda due to poor results.
5. Stay away from Dr Reddys due to American court ruling.

ICICI Direct stock of the Week:

Apollo Tyres

Economic Times Stocks of the Week:

1. Reliance Petro- Safe Bet.
2. SAIL- Somewhat risky.
3. Global Tele – Safe Bet.
4. Jain Irrigation – Long term bet.

Reliance Money stocks of the week:

1. Tech Mahindra
2. Polaris

Stocks for Medium term:

1. Philips Carbon Black
2. Pioneer Embroideries

10 Best Stock picks for Long term investors (1 year- 2 years):

1. Jyothi Structures
2. Alok Industries
3. Reliance Petro
4. Reliance Capital – Best stock for long term investors.
5. Larsen and Toubro
6. Idea Cellular
7. Reliance Communications
8. RNRL
9. Cipla – It is fundamentally strong stock.
10. Tata Tele

Enter into these 10 stocks at lower price:

1. Tata Motors – Growth story lies ahead.
2. Reliance Industries
3. ABB
4. BHEL
5. Kalpataru Power Transmission
6. Tata Steel
7. Bharti
8. HT Media
9. Shipping corporation of India
10. Tata Power

Please share your opinion on my stock picks.

Stock Market guide for Monday- 23 April, 2007

Most of the magazines and News papers are predicting upward turn for Indian Stock markets. But, in my opinion, Markets may see downturn due to uncontrolled inflation, RBI measures in credit policy, bad news from China on rate hike. BSE Sensex may lose around 100-150 points today.

Guide for Day traders:
Stay away from initial trading as Markets may lose heavily due to selling pressure on inflation concerns.

Warning News: Reserve Bank of India may raise CRR in its annual credit policy on April 24. It will be a severe blow to Banking, Real Estate, Auto and finance stocks.

News of note:
Public sector bank’s home loan growth is slowing down.
RBI may increase rates once again to curb inflation.
Inflation again crossed 6%.

Monday Stocks for the Day Traders:
1. Ranbaxy will invest $20 million in its European subsidiary.
2. Shipyard, now under construction at Mangalore, proposed to create facility for building ships upto one lakh tonnes capacity instead of the original plan for fabricating upto 60,000 tonnes capacity ships.
3. Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited (ZEEL) reported a 33 per cent jump in consolidated net profit at Rs 69 crore in the fourth quarter of FY 07 over the year-ago period.
4. Copper prices rose once again. Watch out Hindalco and Sterilite.
5. Praj industries are on global acquisition spree.
6. Alok industries tied up with Peacock Alley.

Negative News:
1. Stay away from auto and Banking stocks as they may lose heavily.
2. Titan Industries reported 18.5 per cent dip in net profit at Rs 30.32 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 31, as against Rs 37.21 crore for the same quarter a year ago.

Economic Times stocks of the week:
Matrix Laboratories and Cairn India, UTI Bank, ACC and Ashok Leyland.

ICICI Direct’s stock of the week:
I Gate global solutions.

My favourite sectors for future growth:
Shipping and Power
Accumulate Teledata. It may touch 200-300 within one year.
Concentrate on Mid Cap stocks.