Indian share Markets are in bearish phase

Bears will dominate Indian stock markets in the coming sessions due to weak global markets and profit booking. There will be a clear slow down in the growth of most sectors and fail to justify their very high valuations. This is a very opportunistic period for new investors who want to enter into good stocks. High growth stocks like R-Com, Reliance Energy, PFC, IFCI, IDBI, Praj Industries, ABB, L&T, JP Associates Etc. will be available at good valuations after this moderate correction. This is also a transition period in some sectors like IT and Telecom where TCS is looking strong over Infosys and R-Com over Bharti Airtel. Pharma is a safe bet in these volatile times.

Global cues: Global markets are looking weak with Asian Markets are down due to profit booking.

1. Dow Zones touch 14,000 during intraday and NASDAQ was at 6 year high. Profit booking was seen in the late session like Indian Markets.

New Listing – Sun Pharma advanced research.

Stock of the day: DLF. It will post wonderful results by tomorrow.

Significant news and views:

1. HSBC downgraded Indian equities due to increased leveraged positions and high valuations. It is bearish on Indian stocks.

2. Sensex target by the end of 2007 is 13,500-14,200 – HSBC Securities. It is a real concern.

3. Rupee target by the end of March, 2009 is 37.8 against Dollar – Credit Suisse.

4. IIP Numbers were once again down indicating slow down in economy with Consumer Durables and Auto is the worst performer while Capital goods is the best performer.

5. 10% growth is possible in next financial year – Finance Minister.

6. There will be some more CRR hikes – UBS.

Positive stock news:

1. Net profit of Zee Entertainment was increased by 50%.
2. KPIT Cummins posted 22% jump in net profits despite strong rupee and rising salaries.
3. Gateway Distriparks announced good results.
4. R-COM announced massive expansion plans. This stock should be in everyone’s portfolio along with Reliance Capital and Reliance Energy. Accumulate these gems on dips.
5. ITC Foods launched organic spices in select categories.
6. Tata Motors entered into Saudi Arabian market by launching 3 car models.
7. NDTV posted a net loss of Rs 2 crore Vs net loss of Rs 10 crore in previous quarter.
8. Nectar Life sciences is a very good stock but it was overbought.

Negative news:

1. Tata Tea net profit was decreased by 49%. Buy on dips. Tata Tea will give 20% returns within 1 year.

Stock advice:

1. Value unlocking in tower business by Reliance Communications will yield good results. This stock is a safe bet for any kind of investor.

2. Jubilant Organosys announced wonderful results. Stock is ready for new highs.

3. Biocon will rise ahead of good results.

4. Gateway Distriparks will announce good results.

5. TCS will overcome Infosys in forward PE due to its less dependence on US.

6. L&T is getting orders in a big way. Accumulate this stock on correction.

7. Accumulate Bharti Shipyard if you are a long term investor.

8. Hanung Toys is a safe stock for conservative investors.

9. Mutual funds are accumulating Meghamani Organics.

10. Noida Toll Bridge is another good investment. Good growth story at least for another 2 years. Valuations are the only worry.

11. Bayer Cropscience is a good bet for risk taking medium term investors.

12. Hindalco will be benefitted by Rio Tinto acquisition of Alcan.

Stocks to watch out for:

1. Reliance Industries – Strong Momentum.
2. Dr Reddys and Lupin – Pharma is a good bet.
3. Gujarat Ambuja, ACC and Shree Cement – Cement demand.
4. L&T – may bounce back on strong orders.
5. Reliance Energy.
6. DLF is looking strong ahead of results.
7. Tamilnadu News Print.
8. Alembic.
9. RNRL – may gain by 1-2%.
10. Jubilant Organosys.
11. Gateway Distriparks.
12. Plethico Pharma.

Share your views on Indian stocks and comment on my views.

Export stocks will rule in the coming sessions

Export stocks finally got life line from the Indian Government. Government announced sops to the extent of Rs 1,400 crore to the sectors which were severely hit by rising rupee except IT. Underperformers like Textiles and other export stocks will rule the Indian share markets in the coming sessions. Short term investors should enter into these stocks to make huge profits in the short term.

Market sentiment: BSE Sensex will gain around 150 points due to inclusive rally from under performers. Profit booking will be seen in recent performers like GMR Infra.

Global cues: US markets made record gains with Dow Jones is making record gains in one day after 2002. Indian markets will follow their global peers to make new record highs.

Sector of the day: Export stocks especially Textile stocks.

Stock of the day: Textile stocks, KRBL, Hanung Toys, DLF, DCM Shriram and Raymond.

Rumour of the day:

1. Rupee may touch Rs 36 by the end of 2007. Stay away from IT stocks.

Pharma stocks that will be benefitted from Rupee rise:

1. Ipca Labs, Lupin, Ajanta Pharma, Nicholas Piramal and Elder Pharma.

News of the day:

1. Rs 1,400 crore sops package was unveiled for exporters to save them from rupee problems.
2. Commerce ministry reduced the exports target for 2007-08 to $ 125 billion from $ 160 billion.

Significant news:

1. Manufacturing sector suffered decline in growth to 11.9 from 13.3% of the last year.

2. Sectors that will be benefitted: Textiles (including handloom), readymade garments, leather products, handicrafts, engineering products, processed agricultural products, marine products, sports goods and toys.

Positive stock news:

1. DLF Ltd bagged DCM Shriram land in West Delhi for Rs 1,750 crore – Record deal in India.
2. Great Offshore bagged Rs 1,000 crore order from ONGC.
3. TVS Motors will roll out bikes from its Indonesia plant within 30 days.
4. Geojit financial services recorded 71% rise in net profit.
5. Mukesh Ambani’s SEZ got clearance from government.
6. UTI bank profit rose by 45% to Rs 175 crore.
7. Govt. Gave clean chit to Jet Airways chairman Naresh Goyal. Fly in Jet flights to US.
8. Essar bid is short listed for Stelco.

Negative stock news:

1. Bajaj Auto net profit was down by 18%.
2. IL & FS COO Girish Nadkarni resigned and will join Avendus.

Best stock picks for day traders and Investors:

1. Raymonds.
2. DLF.
3. DCM Shriram.
4. SRF.
5. Vardhman Textiles.
6. Himatsingka.
7. Century Enka and Century Textiles.
8. Bombay Dyeing.
9. Alok Industries.
10. Arvind Mills.
11. Welspun India.
12. RSWM.
13. KRBL.
14. Hanung Toys.

Please share your opinion on my stock analysis and share your views on Indian stock markets.

Black days will continue for Indian investors

Today will be another painful day for Indian Investors. Some operators are trying to keep the positive momentum in the hyped and overvalued markets by raising the stock prices like Hindalco and ACC without any specific reason. But negative triggers emerging from global markets will continue to dampen the spirit of those bull operators. Correction is due for some time and markets will continue to give losses for some more time.

Market movements: BSE Sensex will trade between 14,000-13,870 while Nifty will trade between 4115-4075. Sentiment is very weak in the markets. Some late recovery may be seen.

Stock of the day: Time Technoplast.

My Stock advice:

1. Don’t be hyped by DLF subscription data. Most of those bids were by foreign investors with long term view. DLF will give heavy losses to medium term investors but may give good returns on listing day. I prefer Vishal retail.

2. Investors may buy good stocks after crash with BTST (Buy Today and Sell Tomorrow). This advice is only for risk taking investors.

Why DLF will rise on the listing day?

Foreign and long term investors who missed the allotment will lift the stock by buying on the day of listing.

Significant News:

1. Government will take measures to reduce overheating in Real-Estate and Housing- Finance Minister.
2. Time Technoplast will be listed today. Investors may make smart gains.

Negative stock News:

1. Indian consumer durables production is decreased.
2. Mayawati government will probe land allotments to IVRCL and others in Noida, Lucknow and Kanpur.

Positive stock news:

1. Reliance Energy’s Dadri project may get clearance from UP government.
2. L & T got Rs 911 crore order from ONGC and SAIL.
3. Cadila mulls to launch GDR issue.
4. Sundaram InfoTech bagged Microsoft order.
5. Government will give some sops to Textile sector. Short term risk taking investors may buy these stocks for short-medium term.
6. Deccan Aviation will hike prices in some routes.

My Stock picks for medium-long term investors:

1. Carborundum
2. Britannia.
3. Fortis health care.
4. Wire and Wireless (2-3 years).
5. Berger Paints.
6. Bharti Shipyard.
7. Areva T&D
8. Idea Cellular(6-12 months) and Tata tele.
9. RNRL (1-2 years).
10. Ispat Industries.

Note: Due to my personal busy schedule, I am unable to do sufficient research on stock markets to recommend stock picks for day traders. Mistakes are regretted. Am I addicted to blogging and stock markets? May be.

Correction will continue in June due to IPOs

Markets are in the dangerous territory. DLF and ICICI IPOs will suck big amounts from markets in June. Stock markets will continue to trade in this volatile zone for another 20-30 days. If investors accumulate money, they can buy some good stocks at attractive valuations. This is the only happy news in this month. Sometimes correction is also good. Newly entered traders and investors will suffer heavy losses in this whole episode.

Dangerous news:
1. Rupee may fall below 40.50 Vs dollar on the account of increased inflows due to big IPOs.

Most significant news:

1. Slow down in the growth of coal, cement and steel sectors in the first month of current financial year.
2. Petroleum refinery and power sectors showed improvement in growth.
3. Closely watch Berger paints stock as it will announce results today.

Positive stock news:

1. Jammu & Kashmir bank is planning to list in foreign markets.
2. Reliance capital is planning to enter into i-banking.
3. Reliance gas price bids may get clearance from government shortly.
4. Strides Arco labs acquired Grandix Pharma for 100 crore.
5. Hero Honda motors will enter into 4-wheeler components business.
6. Ispat group will invest $3 billion in Bangladesh.
7. GV Films will buy 10% stake in animation company “Sanara”.
8. Yashraj films will tie up with Disney to produce animation films.
9. Yashraj films may form JV with Blackstone group to enter into exhibition business.

Negative Stock News:

1. 10% price correction in the last 6 months in housing sector.
2. Courier companies stocks will suffer heavy losses due to 40% decrease in speed post charges.
Stock advice:
1. Buy Idea, RPL, RNRL and Zee Tele on declines.

Stocks to watch out:

Patni Computers, Jammu Kashmir bank, Berger paints and Reliance.

Note: I will not publish my daily recommendations until June 14 due to busy personal work.
Happy trading.